How Many Voters Are Registered Republicans

KEY POINT FROM THIS Article

— Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters annals without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, forty% of all voters in political party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 1000000.

Poring over party registration

This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a articulate minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Nevertheless the Democrats approach this autumn's midterm elections with an reward in one cardinal attribute of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party.

Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with political party registration; in the others, such equally Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Amidst the party registration states are some of the nation's well-nigh populous: California, New York, Florida, N Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Bailiwick of jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts.

The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, in that location are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 one thousand thousand.

Nonetheless, Republican Donald Trump found a road to victory in 2016 that went through the party registration states. He scored a near sweep of those where there were more Republicans than Democrats, winning 11 of the 12, while as well taking six of the 19 states where there were more Democrats than Republicans — a group that included the pivotal battleground states of Florida, Due north Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Map 1 and Table ane: Political party registration totals by land, July 2018

Democrats no longer control the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, or for that matter most of the governorships or state legislatures. But they all the same maintain a toehold in the political process with their edge in the realm of voter registration. At least that is the case in the 31 states and the District of Columbia that annals voters by party. As of this calendar month, xiii of these states (plus the District) avowal a Democratic plurality in registered voters, compared to viii states where there is a Republican plurality. In the other x states, in that location are more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans, with Democrats out-registering the Republicans in 6 of these states and the GOP with more voters than the Democrats in the other four. They are indicated in the nautical chart as "I(d)" or "I(r)." Nationally, four out of every 10 registered voters in party registration states are Democrats, with slightly less than three out of every x registered as Republicans or independents. Overall, the current Democratic reward over Republicans in the political party registration states approaches 12 million.

Sources: Contempo party registration numbers used hither are from country election websites and are based on totals compiled in early July 2018. Registration data are as of the following months: October 2016 (Kansas and Rhode Isle); February 2017 (Massachusetts); November 2017 (Connecticut); January 2018 (Oklahoma); March 2018 (Arizona and Maine); April 2018 (New Hampshire and New York); May 2018 (California, Florida, Maryland, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania); June 2018 (Arkansas, Commune of Columbia, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, Due north Carolina, and Due west Virginia); and July 2018 (Alaska, Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming).

Notes: In states such as Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Utah, the total number of active and inactive voters are presented on the state election website, but only the number of agile registered voters is used in this article. The "other" column includes voters registered with 3rd parties. Percentages practise not ever add together to 100 due to rounding. Zero percent (0%) indicates less than 0.v%. "NA" indicates there were no numbers in this category.

Some caveats

At this bespeak, it might be wise to pause and inquire the question: Why do these numbers affair, either individually or in the aggregate?

Certainly at that place are facts that argue that they should be taken with a grain or ii of salt. Near party registration states are found in more Democratic terrain: the Northeast (11 states plus the District of Columbia) and the West (x states), followed past the South (six states) and the Midwest (four states), all of the latter rural states west of the Mississippi River.

To be sure, there are a number of major states that practice non annals voters by party, such as Texas, Georgia, Washington, and the keystones of the industrial Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If they did register by party, Texas, Georgia, and Indiana would almost certainly add to the Republican total; the industrial states probably less and so.

Comparing party registration totals between states at a detail point in time tin can be a bit misleading, particularly because some may accept recently completed a purge of "dead woods" on their rolls while others have non. Often, the tendency line over a series of years is more than valuable to look at than a one-fourth dimension registration count.

States can also differ on how they report active versus inactive voters. Basically, the latter take not voted in several consecutive elections and have not responded to the efforts of election officials to reach them, though they are generally allowed to show up and vote if they have non moved. Some states fold in active with inactive voters to produce ane g total. A few states intermission the two categories out separately, where the number of agile voters routinely dwarf the number of inactive voters, sometimes by a ratio in excess of 10 to ane. (This article uses only state totals of agile voters, wherever possible.)

And at that place is some sentiment that a voter's party identification may mean less than it one time did, as the number of individuals who register equally "Independent" (or "No Party Preference," "Unaffiliated," or whatever other nom de feather the individual states adopt) steadily grows. At the beginning of this century, barely 20% of all voters in party registration states were independents. Nowadays, that total is approaching xxx%.

Altogether, at that place are ten states with more than registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans. These states are mainly in the Northeast, with a cluster likewise in the West. By comparison, at that place are Autonomous pluralities of registered voters in thirteen states plus the District of Columbia and 8 other states with Republicans ahead of both Democrats and independents. In addition, there are six states where there is an independent plurality but Democrats outnumber Republicans, and four states where independents are on meridian of the registration totals but Republicans outnumber Democrats. That produces the 19 to 12 state registration advantage for the Democrats mentioned earlier.

With the growth in independents, many voters seem to be proverb to the 2 major parties: "a pox on both your houses."

Even so it also tin can be argued that registering Democratic or Republican is far more than of a statement than it once was. In the current age of precipitous-edged partisanship, in that location is far more than than a "dime's worth of difference" between the two major parties, so registering as a Democrat or Republican is a very intentional human activity of differentiation.

And that makes the party registration figures worth looking at. A comparison of party registration totals on the eve of the 2016 presidential election with the actual voting in Nov shows a noticeable correlation betwixt political party registration and the country by state ballot outcomes. Twenty-4 of the 31 party registration states were won past the nominee whose party had more registered voters (discounting independents for this particular comparison). That is a 77% correlation charge per unit betwixt political party registration reward and a winning balloter outcome. The per centum goes up to 88% if one removes the Southward, the i area of the country where party registration is a lagging indicator of the fortunes of the two major parties.

Nautical chart 1 and Table 2: Nationwide party registration trends since 2000

Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been 2d nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is at present down to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.

Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of agile and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, "Independents" include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into a particular category. Percentages do not add to 100 since the small percentage of registered tertiary party voters is not included.

Sources: Richard Winger's monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News, for ballot-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016; the websites of state ballot offices for July 2018.

Southern exceptionalism

Fifty-fifty though Democrats began losing their say-so in the South a half century ago, they still retain a registration advantage in four of vi Southern states where voters register by political party: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Due north Carolina.

In Arkansas, there is a rudimentary system of party registration in which in that location are a few more Republicans than Democrats, but a vast majority of voters do not identify with either party. In Oklahoma, one of the reddest of states over the final few decades, the party registration reward did not finally flip from Democratic to Republican until a few years ago during Barack Obama's presidency. (Oklahoma is the only country this century where the registration advantage has switched betwixt parties and the Republican lead is likely to hold for the long term. In battleground states such as Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada, the registration advantage has switched at least once between parties since 2000 and has less of a look of permanence.)

It is an open up question as to why other political party registration states in the Southward have not also flipped to the Republicans. For years, they have been regularly voting for GOP candidates up and downwards the election, including 2016 when the whole region except Virginia went for Trump. White southerners who in one case registered en masse for the Democrats take been dying off for years. And the fourth dimension when voters registered Democratic because its master was tantamount to election is long gone. Still, in booming states such as Florida and Due north Carolina, an influx of outsiders registering Democratic could be helping the party fend off a large GOP registration surge that would flip the states to the Republicans.

As it is, Republicans have been steadily whittling away at the Democrats' registration reward in the Southern political party registration states. In Florida, the GOP deficit is at present less than 230,000 registered voters after being nearly 660,000 in October 2008. In North Carolina, Republicans trail past less than 575,000 registered voters, later existence down by 865,000 a decade ago; while in Kentucky and Louisiana, the GOP registration arrears nowadays is below 300,000 and 400,000 registrants, respectively, less than one-half of what information technology was in each state on the eve of the 2000 election.

Tabular array three: Land-past-state registration trends since 2000

The nationwide Democratic registration edge has been fashioned on the two coasts, where they accept had their greatest electoral success of tardily. In California alone, the Democratic registration plurality of less than 1.seven 1000000 voters in October 2000 has more than than doubled to well-nigh iii.vii one thousand thousand. In New York, the Democratic registration reward swelled from barely 2 1000000 at election-eve 2000 to almost 3 million nowadays. Beyond much of the Northeast and West, Democrats have likewise retained an advantage in a number of party registration states in the Southward, where they dominated long ago at the ballot box but have been running on fumes for years. The Democratic registration edge in Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Northward Carolina has been steadily eroding in recent decades however still exists.

Notes: The largest Democratic and Republican registration margins amid the four data points are in bold. An asterisk (*) indicates that in July 2018, there were more voters registered equally contained than Democratic or Republican. "NA" indicates that party registration figures are not readily available. Political party registration totals are based on the number of active voters in states where totals for both active and inactive voters are posted.

Sources: Election-eve party registration figures for 2000, 2008, and 2016 were compiled by Richard Winger and published in his monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News. The July 2018 data were compiled by the author from political party registration numbers posted on state election websites (meet Sources note for Map ane and Table ane).

Lots of consistency elsewhere

In the rest of the country, there was much more consistency between party registration totals and the 2016 election issue, with just three not-Southern states voting "against the grain." On election eve in Pennsylvania, there were 915,081 more registered Democrats than Republicans; Trump carried the state by 44,292 votes. In West Virginia, there were 175,867 more than registered Democrats; Trump won past 300,577 votes. And in New Hampshire, there were 24,232 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the fall of 2016, but Hillary Clinton took the state past 2,736 votes. That's information technology. The other 22 party registration states outside the Due south were carried in the presidential balloting by the political party with more registered voters than the other.

And in many of these "in sync" states, the registration advantage in recent years has grown more than Republican or Democratic equally the case may be, augmented by a healthy increment in independents.

Case in point: California. Xviii years ago, 45% of the country's xv.7 1000000 registered voters were Democrats, 35% were Republicans, and xiv% were independents. Last month, on the eve of California's June v primary, 44% of the 19.0 1000000 registered voters were Democrats (down one percentage betoken from 2000), 25.5% were independents (up eleven points), and 25% were Republicans (down 10 points), equally the Republicans dropped to 3rd place in California registration totals and independents rose to 2nd. In the procedure, the nation's well-nigh populous state has gone from 1 that was vaguely competitive for the Republicans at the beginning of the 21st century to i where Republicans take trouble competing statewide at all.

The registration trend line in California is a microcosm of sorts of political party registration in the nation as whole. Democrats are running ahead and the ranks of the independents are growing. Even so registered voters in both parties appear to be widely engaged. That was the example in 2016, and likely volition be once again in 2018, with Trump flogging issues to rouse his base. In short, this is a highly partisan era when party registration totals, and the trends that go with them, are well worth watching.

Map 2 and Table iv: Political party registration and the 2016 presidential vote

Of the 31 political party registration states, 24 were carried in the 2016 presidential ballot by the political party with the most registered voters in it. Donald Trump swept 11 of the 12 states with a Republican registration advantage, while Hillary Clinton won 13 of the 19 states (plus the District of Columbia) which had more registered Democrats than Republicans. Iv of the Democratic registration states that Trump took were in the Southward, led by Florida and Northward Carolina. He also overcame Democratic registration advantages in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to win both. The only state with more registered Republicans than Democrats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 was New Hampshire, where the issue was very shut.

Notes: An asterisk (*) indicates states where in that location were more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans in October 2016. "Independents" include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into any particular category.

Sources: Richard Winger's Ballot Access News for Oct 2016 party registration data; America Votes 32 (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE) for 2016 presidential election results.